Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
